CHINESE DIPLOMACY AND THE ART OF THE REAL

What a day for news and an ironic day at that. As the neocon establishment heads for the hills, finally forced to look at the quagmire known as Iraq; China is busy making moves on the diplomatic front. Synchronicity or coincidence, I’m not sure, but as President Bush and Co. is getting rebuked by the military establishment and deserting neocons; China just finished hosting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Interestingly enough, the points China is scoring are exactly the ones the US is losing.

The war in Iraq has not only cost lives and tax dollars but the US has lost a lot of love in the Arabic and Muslim nations. According to the Harvard International Review

(http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:epqX5oaTs5EJ:hir.harvard.edu/articles/1297/+saudia+arabia+us+relationship&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=1)

“…the development of Saudi-US relations held the seeds of its own destruction and was all but destroyed after the crisis of September 11, 2001.”

Those words were written in the winter of 2005 and trust me; the ongoing war in Iraq hasn’t done anything to help improve US relations with the Arab world. That really is too bad because, historically there was a great deal of strength to the Saudi-US relationship and its’ foundation with the historic meeting between FDR and King Abdulaziz. Unfortunately, America is now viewed as an occupier and biased colluder with Israel in attacking the Arab world while supporting the continued development of Israeli settlements on the West Bank. To put it more simply the US is viewed as a perpetual accomplice in the wholesale destruction of the Palestinian people. This is not a way to win friends and influence people in the Middle East. Let us see what China was doing today.

From the People’s Daily Online:

“Chinese President Hu Jintao and Egyptian President Mohammed Hosni Mubarak Tuesday pledged to further strengthen bilateral strategic cooperative relations as the two countries are celebrating 50-year-old official ties.”

Later we see this.

“Mubarak introduced the situation of Middle East and Egypt's viewpoints on the issue.

Hu said China will always stand on the side of Arabian people, and advocates to settle the issue through political negotiations based on relevant UN resolutions.”

Wow, I thought to myself, did he really say the “always” word? I’m no Georgetown graduate but, that is pretty heavy diplospeak. I had to do some more research to confirm and yes; there it was in black and white. I found it at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. (http://www.ipcs.org/Jun_06_china.pdf)

June 1, 2006

“China will always support the just cause of the Arab people for national legitimate rights.”

Wow! Again; I didn’t even know you were allowed to do that. Isn’t AIPAC or some media outlet going to give them a spanking? I remembered when Israel approved the Dubai Ports deal doesn’t China have to go through some red tape? I’d never read anything like this in my life; which tells you; I really don’t get out much. Then I thought about it…China…strategy…Lao Tzu. What was China’s motive? Why were they capitulating to the Arab and Islamic world instead of blind allegiance to Israel? Then I came across a wonderful little chart at www.globalfirepower.com and it all started to make sense.

TOP PROVEN OIL RESERVES IN THE WORLD (In Barrels)
Data Up Through 2005
NR = Not Reported
Saudi Arabia

262,700,000,000

Canada

178,900,000,000

Iran

133,300,000,000

Iraq

112,500,000,000

Venezuela

75,590,000,000

Russia

69,000,000,000

Libya

40,000,000,000

Mexico

33,310,000,000

United States of America

22,450,000,000

China

18,260,000,000

Brazil

15,120,000,000

Norway

9,859,000,000

India

5,700,000,000

Indonesia

4,600,000,000

Great Britain

4,500,000,000

Australia

3,664,000,000

Argentina

2,950,000,000

Egypt

2,700,000,000

Syria

2,500,000,000

Italy

586,600,000

Three of the top five countries in the world with proven oil reserves were Arab/Muslim countries. The other two in the top five were Canada whose oil reserves require more expensive refining methods and Venezuela, who’s President Hugo Chavez, recently suffered sulfur burns inside his proboscis while referring to George Bush as the devil.

As far as long term oil supplies go it looks like the diplomatic score is China/Diplomacy 1, America/War 0.

In another synchronous example; we have the return of an American and a Brit who were kidnapped while mapping petroleum deposits of Nigeria’s coast. The fact that they were returned safe is good news. The fact that the kidnapping was one incident among a host of violent acts that has cut Nigeria’s oil production by roughly 25%, is not a good indicator for US strategy in the area. That is, of course, if you believe that it is no coincidence that both kidnapped men worked for Chevron. Thus stands the US relationship with Africa’s largest oil producer and one of the world’s top ten petroleum exporters. So let us once again take a look at China’s diplomatic, “Art of the Real”.

On this same day, during Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s visit, some of the Chinese strategy is revealed. In the same speech mentioning, “the just cause of the Arab people”, Chinese President Hu Jintao, says the following.

“On Sino-African relations, Hu said China and African countries are sincere friends and close brothers. The Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is a milestone in China- Africa mutually beneficial cooperation and will have a special impact in the history of Sino-African relationship, he said.”

Did Hu Jintao just hi-five his African “brothers”. Damn! (By the way, for those of you unaware, yes, Egypt is in Africa; I know that causes no small amount of pain for certain intellects, but it is true). Well, you might say, that is a very general commitment and has no specific bearing on China and Nigerian oil. And you know what I would say, “You are right!” Then I would say, give me a moment for some brief research and I’ll tell you what China is doing with Nigeria. Then you might say, well, how do you know they are doing anything? Then I would say, “I know because, they are doing it all over the world.” Let’s have a look.

According to Reuters here is what is happening with China and Nigeria. To include everything that China is doing with Africa would require pages.

July 2005 - China and Nigeria sign an $800 million crude oil deal between Petrochina International and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. to supply 30,000 barrels of crude oil per day to China.

Jan 2006 - China's top offshore oil producer CNOOC agrees to pay $2.3 billion for a stake in an oil and gas field in Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil-producer. The deal is China's largest ever overseas acquisition.

November 2006 - At a summit in Beijing, 12 Chinese firms and African governments and companies sign deals worth $1.9 billion involving 11 African countries covering areas such as infrastructure, telecoms and technological equipment, mineral resource development and insurance.

That should be sufficient evidence. The incredible thing about the Chinese style is once you know it; you don’t have to know what they are doing, because you already know.

Today’s Oil Scoreboard wraps up with a final score of China 2 America 0. I hope this foreign policy thing doesn’t go the way of US Men’s Olympic Basketball. Perhaps, America should steal a glance at China’s legendary playbook, The Art of War.

Chapter Three, Attack by Strategem, states the following.

“Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.”

From the outside; it looks like somebody has been studying their Playbook.