Friday, April 21, 2006

Apples in Seattle

OSIIS Open Source Internet Intelligence Service

Hu Jintao’s historic visit to the United States had many interesting aspects to it. To begin with he visited Bill Gates before President Bush. Thus arranging his itinerary was a very clear statement. There are a lot of ways to put it but, bluntly stated, Jintao’s message was, “Mr. Bush, I respect the power you wield, but I do not respect you.”

The Chinese are Masters of saying all while saying nothing. The head of the world’s largest country in the world, the President of the world’s fastest growing economy, Hu Jintao, steps into America, the most powerful nation in the world and has Apples in Seattle before he drops in on the President of the United States.

How long, how much time was required just between logistics and security, not to mention dinner menus, to coordinate this visit. More importantly, this incredible amount of time and attention revolved around Mr. Gates. Thus we have another message from China via Mr. Hu Jintao. The message is, we respect and like Mr. Gates. We place a high value on him because of his business excellence, excellent product and his willingness to help us utilize it. We are showing our appreciation by giving Mr. Gates Company $1 Billion. We are showing our appreciation by cracking down on illegal copies of Mr. Gates products. (This action is worth more than $1 Billion).

It sounds like Bill and Hu had a wonderful time. They even dropped in on a children’s Kung Fu Club to watch practice. Hu’s facial expressions and body language while visiting with Mr. Gates seemed positive and upbeat for the most part. The only grimace I noticed was when Mr. Hu was receiving those who had come to greet him. The shot was taken so that Mr. Jintao’s face was visible. It captured the rear view of an old, short, gray haired man, in need of a haircut, approaching Mr. Jintao to shake his hand. The old man held Hu’s hand for way to long and you could see the Grimace on Mr. Jintao’s face as he realized what and/or who he was dealing with. It was like Hu joyously chomped into a delicious Washington apple and hit a nasty little worm.

OSIIS did not research much of the Boeing visit. Suffice it to say it’s a huge business deal for Boeing involving 20-30 planes and billions of dollars. Apparently, Hu put on the Boeing hat. It must be love. Surely, Mr. Jintao and China are interested in Boeing Integrated Defense Systems.

Saving the worst for last Mr. Jintao met with Mr. Bush in D.C. At least he didn’t have to go to Crawford where the pistols, boots, Stetson and chainsaw could be laying around. Not to mention, he would risk getting pepper shots from Dick. By the way, Guinea Fowl, which was the First Course in Bill and Hu’s Seattle meal, is raised side by side with Quail in Central Texas. Mr. Jintao was definitely more tense and restrained around President Bush. He was focused on staying on message. His message was that

“China and the United States share extensive, common strategic interests and there is a broad prospect for the mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries. A good China-U.S. relationship is of strategic significance to the maintenance and promotion of peace, stability and development in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world at large.
We both agreed to view and address the bilateral relationship from a strategic and long-term perspective, and we both agreed to comprehensively move forward the constructive and cooperative China-U.S. relationship in the 21st century, to the benefits of the Chinese and American people, and people around the world.”

Those words were drier, more neutral and factual then similar statements China has made about their Russian relationship. Those statements regarding Russia are more emotional and momentum building. For example is this 2003 Statement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding Chinese-Russian relations.

“China-Russia friendly relations and cooperation of good neighborliness and mutual benefit have not only been completely inherited, but also gathered momentum. President Hu Jintao and President Putin attach great importance to the development of bilateral relations.”

There are more examples of China’s international relationships contained in the Euro-Asian Alliance report, Part 1, Shifts in the Global Balance of Power. This report shall be available soon, free of charge, at this website in the very near future.

Mr. Hu almost let the cat out of the bag when he was asked; when would China become a democracy with free elections?

HU: I don't know — what do you mean by a democracy? What I can tell you is that we've always believed in China that if there is no democracy, there will be no modernization, which means that ever since China's reform and opening up in the late 1970s, China, on the one hand, has vigorously promoted economic reform, and on the other, China has also been actively, properly and appropriately moving forward the political restructuring process, and we have always been expanding the democracy and freedoms for the Chinese citizens.

In the future, we will, in the light of China's own national conditions and the will of the Chinese people, continue to move ahead the political restructuring and to develop a socialist democracy, and we will further expand the orderly participation of the Chinese citizens in political affairs so that the Chinese citizens will be in a better position to exercise their democratic rights in terms of democratic supervision, democratic management and democratic decision-making.

When Hu said, “I don’t know --- what do you mean by democracy?” It was as if he was at first infuriated, then realized he was talking to a child and then remembered it was a very dangerous child. In Mr. Jintao’s mind an America so imperialist, so violent and so reviled around the world is no gold standard for democracy. The way Mr. Jintao put it was that democracy is central to his countries modernization and the government has always been expanding the democracy and freedoms for the Chinese citizens. They have even named this democracy. It’s called a Social Democracy. A prime example of a Social Democracy would be Sweden. Hoodathunkit? Looks like our media and Chinese experts need to update their thoughts on China’s political designs. Maybe, after seeing a baby democracy get aborted in Russia and a glorified Democracy go Frankenstein in America, the Chinese decided to give democracy more careful consideration.

All in all President Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States of America was very interesting to say the least. For further analysis on this or any other political event, situation or scenario contact OSIIS. Open Source Internet Intelligence Service.

Monday, April 17, 2006

The Risks of Attacking Iran

OSIIS Open Source Internet Intelligence Service

All current Democratic movements in the Middle East and Iran would be setback.

There would be an increase in vulnerabilities, casualties and chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There would be increased polarization between the US and the rest of the world.

Muslims worldwide would be antagonized.

The number of terrorist attacks against Americans and American Assets worldwide would increase.

The US debt/deficit would be exponentially compounded.

The dollar would be weakened.

US vulnerability to domestic attacks would increase.

US international relations and diplomatic activities would be irreparably damaged.

Other countries would cohesively focus on defensive multilateral responses to US hegemony.

The United States will lose some of its current allies due to internal pressure in their home states.

The likelihood of internal civil unrest/civil war will increase dramatically.

Attacking the United States, it’s assets and interests, at home and abroad, will become a more viable option as our forces face increased engagements and deployments.

The chaotic environment created by a US conflict with Iran will generate long-term upside profitability for oil and oil related interests.

The U.S. Department of Defense will solidify its claims on ever increasing budgetary allocations and expenditures.


Other notable opinions:

Former White House counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke also joined the fray, arguing armed conflict with Iran could backfire and prove even more damaging to US interests than the war with Iraq.

'Strike on Iran to trigger global terror'

Iran would retaliate with a wave of global terror if its nuclear facilities are attacked by the West, British newspaper Sunday Times reports. American experts estimate Muslim republic will strike American targets in U.S., around the world in response to such attack.

Iran has formed battalions of suicide bombers to strike at British and American targets if the nation’s nuclear sites are attacked, British newspaper The Sunday Times reported. The paper quoted Iranian officials who stated that 40,000 trained suicide bombers are ready for action.

The Times has obtained a tape recording of Dr. Hassan Abbasi, head of the Center for Doctrinal Strategic Studies in the Revolutionary Guards, in which he says in a speech that 29 western targets had been identified: “We are ready to attack American a