“The Euro-Asian Alliance: Shifts in the Global Balance of Power”, makes the case for a cooperative effort between France, Germany, Russia and China, “to create a rival power center capable of opposing the execution of detrimental foreign policy by the United States”.
The greatest threat of such a cooperative alliance is the possibility of its expansion throughout the globe and utilization of covert terror operations to achieve its objectives. This threat concept is called GUTRUSH or Globally United Terror Response to United States Hegemony. The likelihood of a GUTRUSH initiative is strong when consideration is given to the expanding political, economic and military relationships of the Euro-Asian Alliance members with countries that pose potential nuclear and/or terror threats to U.S. interests.
Only ignorance and hubris could allow anyone to believe that countries many years older than the U.S. would not resort to cooperative terror operations if world opinion, international law and U.N. resolutions did not protect their interests. In many parts of the world, the U.S. is viewed as a deaf bully, unwilling to hear or listen to any other countries opinion. This fact and the perception that the U.S. unfairly supports Israel through a biased and prejudiced foreign policy gives America’s enemies more than one thing in common, more than one motive in common and forces them to be creative in their responses to U.S. hegemony.
Concerning the EU, the CIA’s, 2003, Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction, states the following. “Iran continued to successfully procure dual use goods and materials from Europe. In addition, several Western European countries remained willing to negotiate Advanced Conventional Weapons sales to Libya, India, Pakistan and other countries to preserve their domestic defense industries. North Korea approached Western European entities to obtain acquisitions for its uranium enrichment program.” This information makes it quite evident that Europe does not share the United States “axis of evil” philosophy.
EU members certainly consider their Islamic population and geographic proximity to Islamic countries. According to former career CIA agent, Robert Baer, in his book, “See No Evil”; “It didn’t take a sophisticated intelligence organization to figure out that Europe, our traditional ally in the war against bad guys, had become a hothouse of Islamic fundamentalism”. Spain and Turkey have already suffered significant terror attacks for their support of the US‘s war in Iraq. It is reasonable to believe other European countries have given these potentials careful consideration.
We have also seen the terrorists express their appreciation for a European policy of non-intervention in the US led war in Iraq. A blatant display of such appreciation occurred when terrorist released their hostages after learning that they were French. In the meantime, American hostages continue to be beheaded with rapidity. In these base physical actions the implied understanding between Europe and the terrorists is one of cooperation. The following facts also make a strong case for the likelihood of European involvement in Operation GUTRUSH. Much of the planning for the 9/11 attacks took place in Europe. If nothing else this indicates a level of comfort that violently anti-American terrorists feel in the European environment. No terrorist attacks have occurred in France or Germany since the beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom. This indicates that the terrorists believe any possible statement they could make in these countries is not worth jeopardizing the current relationship, whatever that relationship may be. Shortly after the 9/11 attacks took place a French author published a number one bestseller that stated the Pentagon was hit by a missile and not an airplane. The implication is that America purposely struck its own Department of Defense for political purposes. That such an accusation reached bestseller status indicates that its theme was popular and/or was intended to be so. The challenges in US-French relations since 2001 are well documented.
We can imagine that the French are throwing temper tantrums like misbehaving children whose greatest threat is to our eardrums or we can believe that the French, who have survived two World Wars and heavy attacks by foreign troops on their own soil, have made contingency plans. If the latter is true, then GUTRUSH, a Globally United Terror Response to United States Hegemony, may be considered a viable option by the French and other EU members for protecting their interests. Once we understand how our former allies could feel pushed far enough into a corner to participate in a GUTRUSH it is that much easier to envision participation by Russia and China. The key to a effective GUTRUSH is that world powers like the EU, Russia and China, who have already voiced their displeasure, discontent, and desire to limit US hegemony, begin proactively enhancing the economic, political and military apparatus of second tier or perimeter nation states outside the Alliance.
In the CIA’s, 2003, Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Weapons of Mass Destruction, the CIA expresses continuing concern about Chinese nuclear cooperation with Iran and Pakistan. China has offered significant assistance to Pakistan and Iran on ballistic missile related projects. Thanks to Chinese assistance Pakistan has moved toward domestic serial production of Short Range and Medium Range solid propellant ballistic missiles. Chinese entity ballistic missile related assistance helped Iran move toward it’s goal of becoming self-sufficient in the production of ballistic missiles. In addition, firms in China provided dual-use missile-related items, raw material, and/or assistance to several other countries of proliferation concern-such as Iran, Libya and North Korea. Chinese firms are still providing dual-use chemical weapons related equipment and technology to Iran, as well as, Advanced Conventional Weapons to Pakistan and Iran.
According to the Secretary of Defense’s, 2003, “Annual Report on the Military Power of The People’s Republic of China”, Beijing apparently believes that the US poses a significant long-term challenge. China’s leaders have asserted that the US seeks to maintain a dominant geostrategic position by containing the growth of Chinese power, ultimately “dividing” and “Westernizing” China, and preventing a resurgence of Russian power. Beijing has interpreted the strengthened US-Japan security alliance, increased US presence in the Asia-Pacific region-including Central Asia—and efforts to expand NATO as manifestations of Washington’s strategy. While seeking a stable relationship with Washington, Beijing will continue to seek opportunities to diminish US regional influence.
The PLA’s (People’s Liberation Army) strategy places a strong emphasis on surprise. Their writings indicate a number of methodologies that could enhance the success of surprise, including strategic and operational deception, electronic warfare, and wearing down or desensitizing and opponents’ political and military leadership. At least one objective would be to reduce indications and warning of military action. For there to be no indications via satellite or humint would require that the PLA does not move. Subsidizing covert terror attacks through jihaddi organization would allow for that while providing the ultimate surprise.
Most interesting in this Department of Defense report are the following sentences. “Beijing apparently believes that the US poses a significant long-term challenge. China’s leaders have asserted that the US seeks to maintain a dominant geostrategic position by containing the growth of Chinese power, ultimately “dividing” and “Westernizing” China, and preventing a resurgence of Russian power.” What’s interesting in this analysis, if accurate, is that it states clearly that China and Russia have the same geostrategic national security interests.
To prevent the resurgence of Russian power the US is determined to divide and Westernize China. That is another way of stating what the Chinese believe regarding US policy and strategy in the region. The word “divide” is a direct assault on what China considers the most essential condition for its national survival and development…”national unity”. That makes the US the number one security threat and concern of Chinese policymakers and intelligence heads. The US may want to ask itself the following question and carefully consider the answer. What are the implications of Chinese and Russian participation in a Globally United Terror Response to United States Hegemony (GUTRUSH) if China places its own sovereignty and stability second to “national unity” under a Marxist/Maoist government?
This brings us to the final and perhaps most important nation in the Euro-Asian Alliance’s push into a GUTRUSH, Russia. Many in US intelligence understand the formidability of the KGB far better than the author. With that in mind it is quite doubtful that KGB spy Vladimir Putin reflects fondly upon his Soviet Republic’s Cold War losses as he decides upon Russian foreign policy. As documented in “The Euro-Asian Alliance: Shifts in the Global Balance of Power”, the result of a 2003 meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov resulted in the following statements out of China’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
Regarding President Hu Jintao and President Putin,
“They emphasized that whatever changes the international situation may undergo, China and Russia will give priority to bilateral relations in their respective foreign policies and their policy of deepening and developing bilateral strategic coordination in various fields will remain intact, and that the mechanism of high level contacts and the cooperation between the two countries will continue to be intensified.”
Foreign Ministry Comrades Ivanov and Jintao agree on many things including “the Iraqi issue, North Korea nuclear issue and other international issues.”
Whatever Vladimir Putin is thinking in regards to the Old Cold War, the United States and the future of Russia, China is on board. Not only is China on board diplomatically and politically but there is a few billion dollars in Chinese currency getting on board every year for Russian military training and hardware.
As we continue delving into the concept of GUTRUSH and analyzing the thoughts, feelings, actions and statements of the Euro-Asian Alliance it becomes apparent that the concept may already have moved into reality. The most likely brain center for GUTRUSH would be in Russia. China’s foreign policy appears to be one of deception, especially the appearance of amicability for purposes of economic gain. The EU is an ally of the US through NATO and other institutions, thus making it to risky a location to support the GUTRUSH brain center. Russia, on the other hand, has had a head start since it has been going head to head with the US for decades. One Soviet defector, Anatoly Golitsyn, said that the dissolution of the USSR was actually a KGB operation. Thus far 139 or 94% of his 148 predictions have been verifed. It would be interesting to know exactly what he meant.
According to the CIA’s Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction, Russia is an active player. Russia has assisted Iran in building the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. In relation to ballistic missile related goods and technical know how Russia has supplied Iran, India and China. Russian entities remain a key source of equipment, chemicals and expertise for countries of concern with active Chemical and Biological Weapons programs. Russia continues to be a major supplier of conventional arms. As of November 2000 Russian officials stated that they saw Iran as potentially being Russia’s third largest conventional weapons customer behind China and India. Other customers are Libya and Sudan.
A pattern has definitely developed. The Euro-Asian Alliance of the EU, Russia and China has been established. The relationships between all of the Alliance members are far superior to any alliance member’s relations with the US. The Alliance members have all experienced financial losses as a result of US unilateral action in Iraq. The Alliance members are all supporting Iran and North Korea both of which happen to be the two remaining countries in the US’s “axis of evil”. This support includes the procurement and development of Weapons of Mass Destruction. In essence, the Euro-Asian Alliance members are doing everything in their power to support countries that the US has identified as a proliferation and/or terrorist threat. The only thing the Alliance hasn’t done is make the following announcement.
“We the Euro-Asian Alliance will begin actively and directly supporting terrorist operations against the United States of America. We will begin by providing covert financing and operational strategy to terrorist attacks on the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan. We will then begin covertly attacking US assets throughout the Middle East and Eurasian continent. These attacks will certainly occur on Alliance members’ soil primarily impacting US interests while causing minimal collateral damage to Alliance members. This collateral damage will be small enough so as not to impact Alliance infrastructure, yet large enough to exacerbate anti-US sentiment. Initially these attacks will be carried out only through jihaddis whom the alliance will support through a multi-layered splinter cell structure. The actual executors of the attacks will have no inkling of Alliance support. Then on a selective basis attacks on US interests will be carried out by elite members of Alliance intelligence organizations within the framework and footprint of a typical jihaddi operation. As the US begins to find itself reeling to and fro from vast number of attacks on its international interests the Alliance will begin initiating Operation Nightmare Scenario (ONS) on US soil.”
The Euro-Asian Alliance may not have spoken these words and perhaps they have not even considered the thought. Nevertheless, the potential for a GUTRUSH cannot be ignored. This is especially so considering that a GUTRUSH may appear to be the most effective method for the Euro-Asian Alliance to achieve its goals while maintaining plausible deniability. These goals would be to see the United States consumed by conflict in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Such consumption would allow Alliance members to pursue their goals with less opposition from the US. The ultimate goals of the Euro-Asian Alliance are a unified, militarily modernized EU capable of opposing unilateral US policy, a resurgent Russia, a united China, and strong nuclear powered neighbors in Iran, North Korea, India and Pakistan. These are just a few of the Alliance’s possible interests. A covert GUTRUSH could mutate into a push to get the US out of the Eurasian continent. This could further mutate into attacks on US interests in Canada, North and South America as the GUTRUSH expands. Ultimately, in Operation Nightmare Scenario (ONS), the EAA GUTRUSH will begin using the powers of space, the Galileo Satellite Network and the internet, as well as diplomatic pouches and NATO intelligence to achieve its goals.
